Decision-making in critical positions
In short
At expert level, many decisions cannot be fully calculated. Then you choose based on evaluation of the likely outcomes: what happens if the calculation is wrong?
By the end you can
- Evaluate risk vs reward in sharp positions
- Make practical decisions under uncertainty
The lesson
At expert level, many decisions cannot be fully calculated. Then you choose based on evaluation of the likely outcomes: what happens if the calculation is wrong? A line that is slightly worse objectively but safe may be the right practical choice, and vice versa in must-win situations.
Train with positions where the engine’s best move is not obvious and compare your reasoning with the engine’s. Note when you were too optimistic or too cautious.
Key points to remember
- When you cannot calculate everything, evaluate outcomes
- Consider what happens if you are wrong
- Adjust risk to the tournament situation
Examples
Show the solution
36. Bxc4 bxc4 37. g4 Kf6 38. Kd4
Practise it
Solve puzzles on this idea: quiet move puzzles, defensive move puzzles.
Homework
Collect five critical decisions from your games and write the practical reasoning for each.
More thinking process lessons
- What did my opponent just do? (Foundation)
- The safety check before every move (Novice)
- Checks, captures, threats (CCT) (Class F)
- Candidate moves (Class E)
- A full thinking routine (Class D)
- Prophylaxis: what does my opponent want? (Class C)